The Delphi Research Methodology


The Delphi research approach was pioneered by the Rand Corporation in the late 1950s. It is essentially a qualitative and exploratory forecasting methodology that is used where either hard data that may allow extrapolation / interpolation is non-existent or where high uncertainty, complexity and uniqueness disallows the use of quantitative methods.

The objective of the approach is to work towards a consensus amongst a panel of experts regarding a long term forecast of future events. It is also, however, particularly useful in documenting a spread of opinion so that uncertainty regarding specific events can be reflected.

The Delphi technique uses a series of questionnaires administered in phases to interrogate the panel of experts. Information and opinion feedback on progressive outcomes between phases are provided to the panel. The panel is then requested to respond to the outcomes of the preceding phase as follows:

Phase one: The panel is sent a questionnaire and asked to pass opinion regarding future events. The panel co-ordinator analyses responses and compiles them into a document that lists and describes all predicted future occurrences identified by the panel.

Phase two: The panel is sent the compilation of phase one responses and asked to rank and comment on both the probability and magnitude of effect of the predicted occurrences. Phase two responses are then compiled into a document that identifies occurrences about which there is general consensus and occurrences about which there is divergence of thought.

Phase three: The panel is sent the compilation of phase two responses and asked to comment on and possibly review widely divergent predictions that were made.

The resulting responses are then compiled into a final report that details;
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Research Instrument